Jim Szoke's Sports Blog

One Year At A Time

Football teams adhere to the cliche of one game at a time.  For the Panthers, it looks like one year at a time.  The Panthers have gone on a youth movement with a head coach venturing into the final year of his contract...two diverse situations.  An organization known for it's loyalty has gone the other direction by cutting ties with the likes of Julius Peppers, Jake Delhomme, Brad Hoover, Damione Lewis and Na'il Diggs to name a few.  Nobody is arguing that some of the moves were not due, but it is a dramatic change in the Fox/Hurney regime.  Because of a possible lockout in 2011, many of the personnel decisions are being driven above their heads by those writing the checks, and are not merely roster improvements.

NFL owners are trying to show the NFLPA, the players association, that they are struggling financially.  Last year, many teams including the Panthers cut back on their office staffs as Carolina eliminated something close to twenty positions.  Now, we are seeing it on the field as many teams are releasing veteran players in favor of younger, cheaper ones to gear up for what should be a stubborn labor negotiation.

Yes, Julius Peppers cashed in with a $91 million dollar deal but the Chicago Bears can also reportedly terminate that deal after one season and walk away.  The looming possibility of revenue coming to a screeching halt in 2011 has most NFL owners saving their money for an impending rainy day.  

The salary cap has been a good thing for the NFL, but perhaps it's time to blow that system up.  While a cap creates financial parity, many of the same teams (Detroit, Cleveland, Oakland, Buffalo, etc) have not been competitive on the field.  Not every team spends wisely, and examples like free-spending Daniel Snyder in Washington are proof that it takes more than money to win in the NFL. 

2010 feels like a darkening of the NFL skies prior to what could be a major storm in 2011.  Stock up on your canned foods, board up those windows and prepare the sand bags.  A work stoppage warning is showing up in red on Doplar football radar.  If it hits as expected, the NFL could be cleaning up for years to come.

Please Pass the Pepper

 

Panthers five-time All-Pro Julius Peppers and his agent have both complained recently that their phone is not ringing from the Panthers to talk about his future.  Anybody know why?...any one...any one...Bueller...Bueller...Dom Capers....

That's right, as the former Panthers head coach can tell you, signing a defensive lineman to make him the league's highest paid player with a long-term contract is a career-limiting move.  When the Panthers signed former Redskins star Sean Gilbert to that kind of deal it handicapped the franchise for years, not to mention the lost draft picks.  Even to do the one-year franchise tag again on Peppers would be a terrible financial move as no defensive player is worth over $21-million. 

Peppers has been excellent with the exception of 2007 when he dropped to 2.5 sacks.  He has put up 81 sacks in eight seasons, and likely has several great seasons remaining, but the Panthers would be better served addressing their offensive passing game with the money his contract would free up.

The Panthers have some pass-rushing talent already at the position with Charles Johnson, Tyler Brayton and Everette Brown.  It also happens to be a strong class for free agent defensive ends with Tennessee's Kyle Vanden Bosch and Green Bay's Aaron Kampman (coming off knee surgery) among the options. 

Now, cue the Olympic theme music...

 
Is it just me, or did the Winter Olympics just kind of show up on the doorstep at the last minute?  Sure there was an occassional mention of needing some more snow in Vancouver, or Lindsey Vonn's sore leg.  But especially for it being on our side of the planet, it seems to not be as big of a deal as though the games are not what they used to be.  NBC knows going in they will not make their rights money back through advertising, which is not surprising in this economy considering Pepsi didn't even buy an ad for the Super Bowl.  Even so, when else can you get emotionally involved in the sport of curling just to see how the Americans fare?

Great move by NASCAR to tweek the rules to allow drivers to well, uh drive aggessively again.  It was nearly turning into golf for the lack of excitement...there is a report from TMZ.com that Tiger Woods will make his return in his backyard.  A private event held within the gates of Isleworth in Orlando in what is called the Tavistock Cup is not open to the public, yet televised by the Golf Channel.   The event in late March would seem to make an ideal time to limit his exposure to the public while tuning up for The Masters. With Florida real estate foreclosures through the roof, might be time to move into the neighborhood to take in the event as a resident.

Quarterback Club

There is an axiom that the NFL is, and will continue to be, a quarterback league.  While that sounds basic and trite, it is also nearly entirely true if the goal is to win a championship.  Look no further than  the Super Bowl match-up of Indianapolis versus New Orleans.  Nobody would analyze those two teams and say they got there primarily with defense and a running game.  While they are good enough in those categories, they are much more about the abilities of quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.

The Colts trailed the run-and-defend New York Jets (17-6) late in the first half of the AFC Championship game.  But Manning led the Colts on a touchdown drive to make it a four-point game at halftime, and then Indianapolis went on to own the second half with Manning finishing with 377 yards passing and three touchdowns. That capability to put together a quick-strike drive is a game-changer, and ultimately proved more important than being able to pound the ball and run down the clock ala the Jets.

Drew Brees was held to under 200 yards passing in the NFC title game, but it was still his clutch passing that led to the Saints eventually beating Minnesota in overtime.  Also, for all of the throwing he does, Brees is deadly accurate and capable of throwing for 400 yards without an interception on any Sunday.  The Vikings got as far as they did this year with many great components such as Adrian Petersen and a stifling defense. But it was the addition of Brett Favre that was the final piece of the puzzle that put them into championship contention.

Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner led their teams to last year's Super Bowl.  Tom Brady won three Super Bowl MVP trophies in three victories.  It's the most important position to get right, even more so than head coach.  Bill Cowher left Pittsburgh, but Mike Tomlin won a Super Bowl because Roethlisberger remained.  Tony Dungy retires in Indianapolis, but Jim Caldwell doesn't miss a beat because Peyton Manning is still running the show.

It brings us to the Panthers, who have the rare combination of two running backs that rushed for well over 1,000 yards.  The defense became one of the league's best down the stretch run, especially in forcing turnovers.  However, what they must figure out is the quarterback position. 

The current regime has drafted just two quarterbacks in eight years, 5th rounder Randy Fasani and 4th rounder Stefan Lefors. Matt Moore was an undrafted player who was released by Dallas after his rookie training camp.  He is the best of what the Panthers have and might even be good enough to round them into playoff contention.  The gamble is can Moore lead them to a championship?  The quarterback position is the difference between good and great for an NFL franchise, but the great ones don't come around very often. 

John, Jake & Julius

Can't decide if that title "John, Jake & Julius" sounds like a law firm or the old Three Amigos movie cast.   Regardless, they represent three of the biggest off-season decisions that face the Carolina Panthers.  The first one, head coach John Fox will greatly impact the next two, Jake Delhomme and Julius Peppers.

A lukewarm rumor out of Cleveland has John Fox interested in the Browns coaching job if it becomes vacant.  As of this writing, Eric Mangini is still coach in Cleveland, but that could change at any moment. The connection is that new Browns president Mike Holmgren shares the same agent as Fox.  What they don't share is a past working relationship, or similar offensive football philosophies.  Anything can happen, but from the surface this does not look like the kind of job that would lure Fox from the Carolinas.  He has his coaching staff and his type of players here, while Holmgren is clearly running the show top to bottom in Cleveland. 

What I see as more likely is John Fox taking the $6 million on the table for this season and coaching the final year of his contract.  His gamble would be that the team will pick up in 2010 the way they closed out this season.  Despite finishing with 11 players on injured reserve, they blew out the Vikings, Giants and Saints.  It's a Carolina team with the NFL's top rushing attack and one of the league's top defenses down the stretch run.  If the team succeeds, Fox becomes a highly sought free agent coach who could return here or pick from some other possibilities.  The New York Giants would love to have back their former defensive coordinator as head coach if Tom Coughlin's team falters again next season.

The missing ingredient for most of the past season was of course the passing game.  Matt Moore may not be the complete answer, but it's a heck of a start and provides hope for the future.  Moore surprised me with his poise and arm strength.  From the way the principles are talking, expect Jake Delhomme to be retained as a highly paid back-up.  Rookie Hunter Cantwell spent much of this season on the practice squad but provides the biggest body and strongest arm on the team, which may be intriguing.  The question about Cantwell would be is he the next Ben Roethlisberger or the next Chris Weinke?

The receiving group needs another legitimate threat.  ESPN's Mel Kiper Junior told me that it is not a good college draft year for that position.  Of course, the Panthers don't have a first round pick anyways so they may have to fill that number-2 receiver position with an existing NFL player.  The way they run the ball, blocking is a key element for their receivers, which both Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad excel at as part of their roles.  So, whomever they add would also need to be of that ilk and that's a tough combination to readily find.  Dwayne Jarrett had a nice closing game with five receptions, but consistency has not been his strength.

Finally, there is the $20 million dollar question of Julius Peppers.  Now a five-time All-Pro, he did his job well this season and adapted readily to the Ron Meeks defensive philosophy.  If Fox comes back on a one-year deal, it would not surprise me that Peppers does the same.  But that franchise tag would be $20 million and that's a load for anybody even if there is no salary cap.  Peppers keeps himself in tremendous shape, so there's no reason to believe that he would not continue to dominate for multiple years to come if they could some how reach agreement on an extended contract.   

It shapes up as an intriguing off-season for a Panthers team that does not appear to be far away from rejoining the elite.  However, it will be impacted by how the team handles their biggest issues.  And as they say in the movies...No, we will not die like dogs! We will fight like lions! Because we are...The Three Amigos! 

Tiggers Bounce

Just like Tigger, Tiger Woods will also bounce.  It will take a while and he will be forever viewed differently, but he will bounce back.  If you need proof, just take a look at Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Michael Vick, Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez, and Michael Phelps to name a few.  They are just some who provide recent living proof that adultery, cheating, drug abuse or killing dogs can all be overcome in the world of sports as long as you are still a viable, competitive, sponsorable commodity.  And based on that, nobody is better positioned to make a sports marketing comeback than Tiger Woods, who dominates his sport.

First Tiger will have to ride out the on-slaught.  The tally is currently at seven and counting on the number of alleged mistresses ranging from a British TV presenter to the waitress who served coffee and hotcakes to Tiger and Elin at their neighborhood Perkins Restaurant in Orlando.  Once the final count is in, it's going to a take a really big apology.  Oprah probably has the lead on that the television rights to that.  Here's guessing he will go for the medical explanation of "sex addiction" of some sort that will require counseling and therapy.  In fact, Dr. Drew has already been way ahead of the curve with a television show devoted to the topic and his counseling.

 
Now, in no way am I making light of those medical experts who help their patients, or those patients who actually need medical attention to correct behavior problems of this sort.  It's just become a popular trend among celebrity/sports figure types (most recently ESPN's Steve Phillips) to use the medical angle as a way to deflect personal blame for their own "trangressions."  Mrs. Phillips by the way had no sympathy and moved on after Steve Phillips' most recent escapade, some 11 years after a similar encounter when he was running the New York Mets.

Can Tiger buy his way out of his problems?  Sadly, to a large degree yes.  A billion dollars can make a lot of mistresses go mute and perhaps keep Mrs. Woods around long enough to collect a bigger payout.  But in the end, what kind of marriage would that be inside the Florida mansion that his golf career built?  Elin reportedly immediately had a seven-figure sum transferred into her personal account from Tiger and I'm sure their lawyers will be busy for a while sifting through a rewritten pre-nup to settle on terms of her seemingly eventual departure.

Tiger will bounce back. He will do his media sorry circuit, then cut off the conversation forever on the topic. He will win golf tournaments, probably enough majors to surpass Jack Nicklaus.  He will endorse products, we will buy some of those.  He will make another billion dollars in time and perhaps buy a new mansion since the current one holds some bad memories.  The only thing he will lose at is marriage, and we will see if Elin is that forgiving.  But if Tiger is on the prowl as much as it appears, the bachelor life would seem to be a better fit for him anyways.

Out of the Frying Pan, Into the Fire

Now that the Panthers have shown that they can again play with the big boys after busting up Arizona 34-21, they now get the most difficult assignment in the NFL.  Next up are the undefeated New Orleans Saints, who feature the number-one ranked offense in the league, while averaging 39 points per game.  Unlike last year's Saints, this year's edition features a strong running game and much-improved defense. But of course it all begins with the potential league MVP in quarterback Drew Brees, who is the most accurate passer in the game.

Despite the staggering challenge, the Panthers have a punchers' chance based on their performance against the Cardinals.  They did an excellent job of limiting quarterback Kurt Warner with a swarming defense that created six takeaways.  By running the ball for 270 yards, the Panthers controlled the game and the clock in further frustrating Arizona. No team can be (+6) on turnovers every week, but if the Panthers can apply pressure to Brees and knock him around a bit, while filling the passing lanes, they will have an opportunity to pull the upset.  Don't forget, the Panthers were the last team to beat New Orleans, 33-31 in last year's regular season finale.

On to college football, where the BCS may be in trouble with the likes of Boise State and TCU still undefeated.  Currently, TCU is the highest ranked of these non-BCS teams and would be the only one to get into one of the major bowls.  The same thing happened to Boise State last year when they went undefeated, but Utah was ranked higher.  It's ridiculous to guarantee spots for conferences that are having down years, when other teams potentially could run the table and have a chance to play in a BCS bowl game.  As Jim Mora would say, "playoffs?"

I am not anti-New York Yankees.  They did what is allowed within the flawed system of Major League Baseball and spent what it took to give themselves a chance to win another World Series.  I even understand from a marketing standpoint why MLB would like to see the table slanted in favor Boston, New York, Los Angeles, etc to create marquee matchups and sustain rivalries in the games that matter most.  But as a Cleveland Indians fan, the post-season was unwatchable with Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia leading their big market teams while the small markets are left to pick up the crumbs.  And yes, Cleveland plays in the winnable AL Central with the likes of Detroit and Kansas City, but the opportunity for teams such as the Royals, Pirates, etc to sustain success does not exist since they can not afford to hang on to their corp of top players for even a short period of time.  Like the BCS, nothing will change soon, if ever as the gap between the haves and have-nots continues to widen.

Pressure Will Burst a Pipe

"Pressure will burst a pipe" is just one of many eloquent and entertaining quips from my Panthers radio broadcast partner Eugene Robinson.  Geni-Rob also hits Mick Mixon and me with the occassional "punch a man in the mouth, legally" and "get medieval on them" between his more detailed analysis of what's actually happening during the game.  But when looking at this upcoming Panthers versus Cowboys Monday Night Football matchup, the pressure of this week-3 regular season game is hanging over the two teams like a pending thunderstorm.  It's still September and yet it has the feeling of a season in the balance already for franchises that expect to be playoff participants.

So how did we get to this point so soon?  For the Panthers, following up a season-ending 20-point playofff loss to Arizona with a 28-point season-opening loss to Philadelphia crushed expectations that were set from last year's (12-4) regular season.  One week, Jake Delhomme turns the football over five times, while the next week Julius Peppers earns his weekly million dollars by making two tackles.  The Panthers are lacking at defensive tackle and safety because of injuries, and apparently are still adapting to a new defensive system.  Special teams are giving up big plays and field position in putting the defense behind the 8-ball. 

Dallas has similar concerns with quarterback Tony Romo coming off a 127-yard, three interception performance against the Giants.  Cowboys fans can't blame that one on Jessica Simpson.  After leading the NFL in sacks last year, they don't have one in their first two games.  The opening of a billion-dollar stadium and having not won a playoff game since 1996 add to the urgency in Big-D.  So, only two games in the book and already one or both of the teams will be in spin control on Tuesday morning.

Although they are currently a 9-point underdog, I actually like the Panthers chances to win this game.  John Fox teams always seem to rise up about the time they are being counted out.  The Panthers offense put up 440 yards in Atlanta and Dallas figures to put up even less resistance.  I emceed the Charlotte Touchdown Club luncheon this week where linebacker Jon Beason was the speaker.  He said to put the team's slow start on him.  He would come in about 22nd on the list of things to blame, but I look for him to show that same leadership on Monday as the Panthers try to save their season.

And Away We Go...

Pre-season felt like it took about six months, but at last the NFL regular season arrives this week with a feeling of uncertainty about what to expect from the Panthers in season-15.  A team that has traditionally been known for a strong defensive line seems to have their biggest questions in that unit.  The overall questionable tackling of the defense from starters through third-string was a constant in the four pre-season games.  Punt returns were an adventure, enough so that last year's returner Mark Jones was brought back in this week for what appeared to be a second stint with the team but failed the physical and now is on hold.  Offensively, second year running back Jonathan Stewart missed the entire pre-season with injuries that could now carry over into the regular season.

But there is plenty to be optimistic about as well, thanks mainly to DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith.  The top two playmakers are accompanied by one of the league's top starting offensive lines.  Jake Delhomme had a solid pre-season.  Young players like Mike Goodson and Kenny Moore look like they can add some spark and depth to the offensive side.  Defensively, Jon Beason, Julius Peppers and Chris Harris lead the way, and it will be interesting to see the new Ron Meeks defense of flying to the football and trying to create turnovers.

I don't like predictions on win-loss records, so I won't quantify what all of this information means.  Injuries and the variable of how other teams rise and fall make it hard to put a number on it.  Nobody had Atlanta going (11-5) last season.  Watch out for New Orleans though as they have one of the NFL's most potent offenses and the defense is improved making them the most dangerous team in the NFC South in my opinion.  Dallas and Green Bay should bounce back this season, joining Philadelphia, NY Giants, Chicago and the top three NFC South teams as the class of the conference.  I don't think Brett Favre makes that big of a difference for Minnesota, but they will fight for a wildcard.  The NFC West is putrid and I doubt Arizona will play to the level they did last year.

The AFC is loaded, led by the Steelers and Ravens in the North, Patriots and Dolphins in the East, Colts and Titans in the South, and Chargers in the weak West Division.  That's seven right there, so it's tough to imagine one of those not even making the playoffs let alone who may surprise this season.  

2010 is lining up as an uncapped season next year unless something happens, with the collective bargaining agreement running out in 2011.  Hopefully, the NFL will learn from their own past and other major sports by resolving their financial matters prior to then to avoid a lockout.  Expect to see one of the changes to be the 18-game regular season schedule and reduction of pre-season as part of that.

Finally, it was a crazy week last week with the front office changes of Mark and Jon Richardson resigning their positions.  I interviewed incoming team president Danny Morrison three times in less than 24 hours with Hancock, Charlotte's Morning News and the Panthers pregame show.  Beyond exhausting every conceivable question, Danny comes across as real pro and team player that will blend in perfectly to his role and obviously is a trusted friend of Mr. Richardson.  Dr. Morrison has watched over as TCU's football program has become a national contender and did great work with Wofford College and the Southern Conference.  Nice to get all of that cleared up prior to the first kickoff, so now we can focus on the fun part of football.

  

Relax, It's Only Pre-Season

Here's everything you need to know about NFL pre-season records.  Last year, the Detroit Lions were a perfect (4-0) in their pre-season games and then went on to become the first team to ever go (0-16) in the regular season.  So, with the Panthers (0-2) halfway through their pre-season schedule, some of the critics are already chirping.  Don't get me wrong, nobody here is saying the Panthers have it all figured out and are ready to run the table in 2009, but pre-season is supposed to still be a time to work through personnel combinations, a new defensive system and coaching staff, and in general get used to playing in game situations.

The biggest lingering question is whether or not the Panthers will consistently be able to stop the run.  The New York Giants and Miami Dolphins met with little resistance in that department, in particular when the starters were playing.  At one point late in the Miami game, the Dolphins were averaging (6.6) yards per carry before settling in at 5 yards a run by the end of the game.

No question, losing starting defensive tackle and run stop specialist Ma'ake Kemoeatu to a season-long achilles tendon tear was a significant blow.  Also apparent so far is that Damione Lewis is the only defensive tackle currently on the roster capable of starting at this level.  In time, Nick Hayden, Corvey Irvin or Marlon Favorite may emerge, but for now they are more rotation guys to provide depth.  Picking a player off waivers or trading a late draft pick ala the Chris Harris deal two years ago will likely be the next step to plug the position.

Young veterans and rookies who have emerged....second-year linebacker Dan Connor missed most of his rookie season with an injury, but now looks like Dan Morgan did when he was healthy, tackling everybody in sight.  Another linebacker James Anderson has stood out, including eight tackles in just the first half of the Miami game.  Anderson also had a sack and blocked a punt versus the Giants.  Rookie Captain Munnerlyn from South Carolina had a 58-yard punt return against the Dolphins and will compete for playing time in the secondary.

Offensively, Butler High School graduate Kenny Moore is really making a case for the final wide receiver position.  Moore played at Wake Forest and his off-season work with another Demon Deacon grad Ricky Proehl has really paid off.  Rookie running back Mike Goodson from Texas A&M will be the third back and looks like he can handle kick returns.  All three tight ends likely to make the roster have had bright spots with Donte Rosario catching passes, Jeff King as the best blocker, and Gary Barnidge a combination of the two.

Panther Talk is underway, but the first show with an audience will be Monday September 14th at Bank of America Stadium following the regular season opener.  Coach John Fox and a Panthers player will join Mick Mixon and me each week.

Vick Sentence Just Beginning

Michael Vick will get his second chance.  NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will meet with the former Atlanta Falcons quarterback any day now.  Although I am sure there will be a compliance list a mile long, I can't imagine Goodell ruling anything other than reinstatement for the convicted dog killer.  What Vick did as the mastermind of a dog fighting operation was brutal, ghastly and evil.  But a federal judge set his sentence at 23 months and those have been served.  Vick is bankrupt, his career shut down for two years and his reputation ruined forever.  There is no need for the NFL to pile on.  His is a lifetime sentence.  Don't get me wrong, I am not defending Vick, but it is time to move on.

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donte Stallworth killed a man and only served 24 days in jail.  He made a financial settlement with the man's family which certainly shortened his time served.  What does that say about society when the wealthy can buy their way out of punishment?  Stallworth's case is different in that it was a DUI and he did not set out to kill somebody.  But the fact is that he made a number of horrific decisions that led to the death of a human being and served 22 fewer months in jail than Vick, and will miss only one NFL season.

So, assuming I'm right and Vick is reinstated, which of the 32 teams will take a chance on bringing him into their organization?  Vick is probably in decent shape as he has been working with a high-profile trainer.  His role at this point is likely that of a back-up quarterback, although he might be willing to move to another position to resume his career.  Atlanta released him and will not take him back.  Teams like Miami that run some form of the "Wildcat" offense which features a running quarterback make sense, but that is a short list.  Of course, the biggest concern for any team would be backlash of their own fan base and the distraction of the media circus that would set up shop adjacent to their practice field.

I suppose some team will take that chance, but darn if I know who will be that bold.  The Oakland Raiders come to mind because Jamarcus Russell may not pan out and Jeff Garcia is at the very end.  They are of course known for being something of the outlaw team and have been in a disarray for a number of years, so they have less to lose on such a gamble.  Vick fits the Miami Dolphins offense and they have gotten production out of Ricky Williams, who at one point quit the NFL so he could smoke marijuana full-time.  But they also drafted West Virginia quarterback Pat White and may not want to rock the boat with their fortunes turning around.

Forgotten in all of this by many is that before Vick was a dog killer, he was labeled the "coach killer."  That's a reference to former Atlanta Falcons coach Jim Mora Jr.  His dad, former NFL coach Jim Mora, was interviewed in 2006 saying that Vick was not a passing quarterback, and that you could not win consistently in the league that way.  While those Falcon teams teams were often ranked first in rushing behind the athletically gifted Vick, they were also usually dead-last in passing.  Vick was exciting to watch, but only once were the Falcons a playoff factor in his time at the helm.  So, while Vick should get his second NFL chance, one has to wonder why a team would want to provide it.